A Diffusion Model for Highly Fluctuating Phenomenon: Application to Global Hunger

Abstract

Diffusion models are highly studied in physics but are seldom explored in social sciences. However, many social phenomena can be succinctly described in terms of sociological phenomenon such as imitation, cohesion, and group function, which are all characteristics of a diffusion model. In this paper, a diffusion model of the Fick’s type is proposed to describe the underlying behavior of hunger spread in different countries. Based on the global hunger indices of 69 countries from 2008, 2013, and 2018, the indices were decreasing from 2008 to 2013. However, towards 2018 the hunger indices rose. With the Fick’s type diffusion model of hunger, its spread in different countries seem to be irregular. As time passes the hunger indices will be distributed in a normal curve. With these results, hunger continually persists, even with the presence of anti-hunger interventions. The behavior of hunger incidence depends on the country’s living condition and environment. War, drought, and even diet may cause hunger. Sustaining the decrease of hunger indices of a country is a growing concern that every country faces nowadays.