A Bass Diffusion Model of Suicide in the Philippines

Abstract

A growing number of researches have demonstrated that exposure to suicide through television or newspaper leads to increased suicide risk in vulnerable individuals. Highly publicized celebrity suicides are often rationalized and sensationalized by the media. This phenomenon may result in an imitative, contagious suicide effect. This study uses the Bass diffusion model to forecast suicide deaths in the Philippines from 2020 to 2025 based on suicide data by the World Health Organization (WHO) from 2000 to 2017.The Bass model assumes that exposure to suicide (media, social media, verbal exchange of suicide stories) increases suicide deaths based on the suicide contagion hypothesis. The model depicts the successive increases in suicide deaths across Filipino age groups and predicts a suicide diffusion process. The resulting Bass model also underscores the necessity of a suicide contagion intervention plan to address the country’s expected increase of suicide.