Illegal Drugs Diffusion in the Philippines: Exploring the Use of SIR Model

Abstract

The study deals with the issue of illegal drugs spread or diffusion in the country. Itattempts to use a mathematical model to explain how the drug spread/diffusion is describedand analyzed. It specifically (a) determines the patterns and themes found in the simulatedand actual interactions of actors/variables to produce optimal interactions and scenarios;(b) predicts, using the SIR model, whether illegal drug spread/diffusion will continue toproliferate or will it fade; and (c) recommends policies based on the patterns and scenariosdeveloped in the study. Findings showed that using the SIR model there were three possiblescenarios whereby the drug diffusion in the country might be explained. Using existingdata and applying the SIR model result showed that drug spread/diffusion in the countrywas decreasing. The study recommends that the concerned authorities may use the SIRmodel, in conjunction with other qualitative methods, in determining and predicting drugdiffusion in the country. Further, it may employ alternative or supplementary policies toaddress (a) drug prevention activities that protect the susceptible population, (b) causes ofdrug infection/use, and (c) effective drug rehabilitation to prevent relapses.